How to Read Silicon Valley Market Data Like a Pro
Median price gets all the headlines — but it's the worst single number to judge a market by. Here's the handful of metrics that actually tell you where prices are heading, and how to read them together.
Start with sale-to-list, not median
The ratio of what homes sell for versus what they listed for is the single fastest read on demand. Above 100% means buyers are competing and bidding past asking; a falling ratio is the earliest sign a market is cooling — often weeks before median price moves at all.
Days on market is your momentum gauge
How long homes sit before going under contract tells you how much urgency buyers feel. Rising days-on-market means buyers can afford to wait; tightening means they can't. Just remember it swings seasonally — always compare to the same month last year, not last month.
Price per square foot beats median for comparing
Median price lurches around purely based on which homes happened to sell. A few big estates closing can spike the median even when nothing changed underneath. Price per square foot strips that out, which is why it's the only fair way to compare one neighborhood — or one month — to another.
Watch inventory and absorption together
Active listings alone don't mean much. Pair them with how fast homes are selling (absorption) to get “months of inventory.” Under two months is a seller's market; over four tilts toward buyers. The Valley has sat under two for years.
Always zoom to the neighborhood
County and even city averages hide enormous variation. Within Palo Alto alone, pricing can swing by a million dollars between neighborhoods. The headline number is a starting point — the decision happens at the street level.