Silicon Valley Market Report — June 2026
AI-driven wealth is widening the gap between median and average prices. We break down where the luxury surge is real, where it isn’t, and what it means for the rest of the market.
June extended a pattern that has defined 2026: speed at every price point, but a widening gap between the median home and the average one. County-wide, single-family homes are still going pending inside two weeks at the median — yet the dollar-weighted average keeps pulling ahead as AI-driven wealth concentrates at the top of the market.
Where the luxury surge is real
The $5M-plus tier continues to set the pace on the Peninsula, with Atherton and west-side Palo Alto absorbing equity from recent liquidity events. That activity lifts the average far more than the median, so headline “average price” figures overstate what a typical buyer is experiencing.
What it means for everyone else
For buyers under $2.5M, the story is competition, not price spikes: tight inventory and fast timelines, but sale-to-list ratios that have stopped climbing. Anchor on price-per-square-foot for your specific city and watch the sale-to-list trend rather than the countywide average.
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